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Discussion Forum > Shades of the Diceman

I've been trying an interesting little experiment today. I've been using the random list generator at http://www.random.org/lists/ on a list of (currently) 27 tasks to tell me what I should do next. So far it's proved to be remarkably effective.

I've not so far tried to construct a more elaborate system than just randomizing a normal list. My only rule is that I re-randomize every time I do a task (that's so that recurrent tasks stay on the list with an equal chance).There's no weighting for important or urgent items. And definitely no wild cards like "Take the rest of the day off" or "Do the silliest thing you can think of"!

So my question is who can come up with the best system for using the random list generator?
January 6, 2014 at 20:09 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Hi Mark,

I used to do this back in the day, list my tasks in Excel and use the random number generator therein to select a task. If I started by not complee a task, I would readd without crossing off, so t had a greater chance of getting selected.
January 7, 2014 at 0:00 | Unregistered CommenterVegheadjones
Yikes, meant to say if I started but did not complete a task it would have a greater chance of being selected
January 7, 2014 at 0:01 | Unregistered CommenterVegheadjones
Vegheadjones

Yes, I thought of doing that - or something similar. I haven't tried it yet though.
January 7, 2014 at 1:30 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Hi Mark
As per your getting every done book's tip, I use playing cards. I modified it. If I'm overwhelmed with many highly consequential deadline jobs, I simply choose 3 to start and I choose one that seems the most anxiety provoking. Aces - 4 cards. Then I choose 2 more MIT's. Queens - 2 cards and Jacks - 2 cards and 1 or 2 jokers for my choice. Sometimes the overwhelm dissipates enough where I can go back to usual MITs on my list.

If I complete a task or category, I remove the remaining cards. Until each of the 3 MITs have progressed. I take a break and do it again until I feel ok enough to just use a list. If I have many concurrent highly consequential deadlined jobs, this helps to dissipate the anxiety. Also, sometimes only crunching hard for longer hours helps also. My goal is to arrive at enough calm so that I can eat my dinner in peace. Sometimes that means not eating until about midnight. LOL! Eventually things start evening out and I can go back to a normal work pace. I especially love it when there are actual lulls. LOL!
January 7, 2014 at 3:21 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
p.s. typo
Getting Everything Done (and still have time to play)
January 7, 2014 at 3:26 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Learning:

Interestingly the random number generator I gave the link to does playing cards as well, so you don't even need to keep a pack of cards around.

Another thing it does, though I haven't used it yet, is generate random times and (separately) random dates - always within a range you can set. So one could use it, say, with a list of major projects, use it to select one and generate a random time and date when you were going to start work on it. It'll even miss out weekends if you want it to!

I've refined the list method I described yesterday so that I start with two tasks and every time I work on a task I add another one - I only remove the old task if there is no more work I can do on it that day. That way I can make sure the most important stuff gets done early while still allowing plenty of scope for random stuff to get done - which keeps it interesting.
January 7, 2014 at 10:08 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Hi Mark
I like the cards. They are tactile and they add the spirit of gamification. Plus I don't have a smart phone. Sometimes the jobs have lots of different elements which also involve depending on others' actions to move it along. I'm visual so sometimes I'll set up 2-3 separate workstations with magnetic boards to keep track of everything especially pending and follow up. When I have to stop a job because I'm waiting on another person to do their bit, I'll move on to another job and work on it until I'm stuck waiting on another person. When I've gone as far as I need to or I'm stuck waiting on somebody else, I'll pack of that job and get another one progressed. If there wasn't others involved, it would be a hell of a lot easier.

I try to prioritize moving the jobs along as I'm able to get other's to do their part. Sometimes putting a fire under their butt doesn't work as well as I'd like so I'll just go onto another job.

I try to juggle between the impact and importance of the job, the deadline of the job, the amount of time for my work and the amount of time needed to get others to do their part. It's mostly a guessing game when you're dealing with other people. Of course they're unlikely to care as much as you do so you have to keep notes on when they promised something and when to push them some more.

The cards help when I'm looking at all of these jobs that require work and dealing with others yet I have to make sure that the deadlines are met. I already have my habits of working. Random times would frustrate me even worse. I just use my calendar, notes, the work itself and keep plugging away with breaks so that I don't totally lose it. Luckily things aren't always that frantic. I curse myself when my disabilities get in the way. LOL! If the pain dissipates enough, I'll continue working even if it's 2:00am to keep on schedule. When I can't, I'm just stuck being helpless especially when I have surguries. That totally puts a spammer in the works. The world doesn't care about any excuses. Sometimes I just have to pay the price. That's why I work so hard when ever I can so that I don't lose too many battles! LOL!

Your card trick definitely helps to reduce the anxiety. Thanks for the trick! Luckily it's not always like this. I'm happy when I can go back to business as usual. LOL! 2013 was Annus horribilis and 6 days into 2014 looks like more of the same. * sigh * Something has got to give! LOL!
January 7, 2014 at 10:52 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
p.s. I don't necessarily recommend working 12-13 hour stretches all the time. I'm just obsessive. I have a couple more surgeries and I'm hoping that I can get some things settled before then but life doesn't always work out that way. The surgeries always interfere with my work. I try to do as much as possible well before hand. Sometimes it helps. Usually, I prefer to do my weekly DIT in a more rational manner using my normal habits. Even then, sometimes the card trick helps when I'm stalemated. When I'm in enough pain, I don't want to do anything. I have to force myself because I can't concentrate well with the pain and taking drugs makes me even more of an idiot! Using the cards forces me to man up. When the pain abates or the drugs start wearing off, I double check my work for errors. That's usually the joker card. LOL!
January 7, 2014 at 11:01 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Learning:

Wishing you all the best for the surgeries and may 2014 be a year of better health.

I agree with you that using random numbers reduces anxiety. I'm surprised by how little resistance I put up when the number comes up for a task which otherwise I would be avoiding.

There are all sorts of imaginative ways of using a random number generator - most of which I haven't yet imagined! But one that comes to mind is to use it to stop doing things. Draw up a list of projects and randomly select one (or more) to cease doing. That could be a once a month exercise or even a once a year exercise.

Among the testimonials on the random number site is one from a guy who uses it to predict the future - a future which he then makes happen. I'm not sure how seriously he meant it, but it does have possibilities.

And I've always thought it a pity that car GPS's don't have a "mystery tour" function. You could set a maximum distance or time and it would take you to a completely random destination or alternatively a random journey ending at a specified place. In the long-off days before reliable cars and GPS's I got to know many out-of-the-way villages in England by breaking down in them while completely lost!
January 7, 2014 at 11:14 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
hi Mark
thanks for the good wishes.

I learned with the card trick to always add at least one joker. If all of the cards have high anxiety work, I won't play the game. LOL! The joker adds the possibility of me choosing the freedom to choose something less onerous.

Lots of my work isn't on the computer. Lots of legal stuff still uses old fashioned paper and old fashioned mail system. PITA! LOL!

I'm not sure of what you mean about randomly choosing projects not to do. I wouldn't be working on it if I didn't have to do it. Sometimes I'm forced to lose some but I'd never willingly choose to default on my obligations.

Like you, I'm stumped on what on the guy using randomness to choose his future.

When I was in the workforce and totally wiped out, I'd go buy a cup and coffee and just drive randomly. It was relaxing and sometimes I'd discover places that I'd like to further investigate. I had to remember to only drive only so far out so that I could get back home within an hour or so. Sometimes, I'd choose to take a chance on eating a meal in an interesting looking eatery. Since I live near the ocean, I'd find these great raw bars to check out. I love raw bars! LOL! I love your Beatles' reference. What a great way to think of it. I just thought of it as winding down enough to go home with less burdens of the job weighing me down. The disabilities make driving difficult. I genuinely miss car rides for the sake of it: not to get anywhere specific. I love that you named it the mystery tour. Add some Steppenwolf, and I'm with ya!
January 7, 2014 at 11:52 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Learning:

The point about choosing *not* to do things is that many people tend to over-commit themselves. This is particularly bad for recently retired people, who always complain that they are much busier than they were when they were working. So a regular audit of commitments is a good idea. Doing it randomly is something I'm not sure I'd have the courage to do though!

Can't remember the last time I mailed an actual letter. Normally I only use snailmail for returning my Lovefilm disks.

This is the third time today the random selection has come up with "Comments"!
January 7, 2014 at 12:04 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Hi Mark
I only use the card game for obligations. I prefer to free wheel it otherwise. LOL! I usually have a pretty good sense of how I want to spend my free time. Of course, my silly brain is always generating lots of possibilities. I already know that I can't entertain the thought of possibly doing all of them. So far as other people trying to obligate me, I'm pretty good at saying No. LOL!

In the US, a lot of legally binding stuff is still in paper form. In fact yesterday, I was at UPS submitting a document. Today or tomorrow, there are more. PITA. I do as much as possible on internet ….when I'm allowed.

LOL about the comments coming up 3 times. I only have 1 or 2 jokers per 11-12 cards. That ensures that I get the MITs done more quickly. When I take a break, I can do a combo of recurring stuff and goofing off. Then back to another round of 4 aces, 2 queens 2 jacks and 1-2 jokers until I feel ok enough to just work off of the list. I'm dreading 8am. That's when I have to start cracking...
January 7, 2014 at 12:31 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
4th time today! :-)
January 7, 2014 at 14:46 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Mark, this is a very fun tool. I fed in about 8 large and small tasks, and it uncannily selected the one I most needed to finish first, put all the 'mosquito" tasks in the middle (which ultimately took little time), and finished with the next big project I need to focus on. I mean, what?? How did it know?

I'm wondering if it's playing on the suggestibility of our imaginative brain machines. Rather like Tarot cards, where the reader can make an interpretation/narrative for any picture or sequence of pictures. By offloading the cognitive chore of ordering the tasks to the random algorithm, I am free to instead use my cognitive resources to simply focus on each randomized task in sequence. It's like I didn't have to exercise any responsibility to pick what task to work on next, I just needed to work on it.

Not something I'd need to use everyday, but if faced with lots of little tasks that feel overwhelming? Throw them into the randomizer and let it sort them out for me. Some days, I'd rather be the soldier than the general.

So not cartomancy or bibliomancy but...Taskomancy? :)
January 7, 2014 at 16:38 | Registered CommenterMike Brown
Hi Mark
You are far more lucky than I am! I worked almost 5 hours straight and didn't get a joker. I just took a break even though I didn't finish all of the cards. Now I get a break. I still feel overwhelmed so I'll do another round with the same card distribution. This time I'll add another joker. I hope I can get at least one joker the next 4 hours. GEEZ! LOL!

For me anyway, the magic element of randomly choosing the cards is that I'm not dreading anything specific! LOL! And I have 1 or 2 jokers in there. That gives me the hope of not doing only my dreaded work. Unfortunately I don't always draw a joker per work session. I'm ashamed to admit it but I don't put any small or recurring stuff on my MITs even when I'm doing my ordinary DIT (weekly plus daily focus). I just bundle them and treat them as a respite to give my brain a rest from the highly focused, high anxiety work. When my obligations aren't this crunched and it's only a matter of a bad attitude, I use the card trick for the same purpose. When I don't know what I'm drawing, there isn't any dread focused on particular work. I can simply curse and moan while I'm doing whatever I drew. If I'm close to finishing a unit of work, I'll just press on to get it out of the way today. I pretty much know when I've done enough for today. Unfortunately I don't always get that relief in under 8 hours. If I can't stand the worry, I'll just prime the deck and work into the evening and night. The next day, I'm grateful that I did it....unless the next day puts even more crap on my back! LOL! Since Oct 02, I've felt like Sisyphus. There has got to be a stopping point eventually or at least a lull. I hate the feelings of futility that I'm feeling. I dread checking email, answering the phone or getting my mail. At least Sunday doesn't have any incoming! LOL! I just keep telling myself that eventually all of this crap will be out of my active memory. That hopefulness gives me impetus to keep trying. LOL!
January 7, 2014 at 18:20 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Hi Mark
I just thought of something. Does the randomizer keep the tasks circulating rather than eliminating them as you work on them? I like that the cards go to the discard rack so that I know that I'll likely draw at least all 3 MITs for that round. I usually draw a joker during a time block. Unfortunately, sometimes I don't get the joker. If the randomizer keeps circulating the same work such as getting 4 comment cards only half way through the day, then the actual progress might suffer. That would only add to my anxiety and I'd find myself ignoring the easy card. My way, I know that I'll make good progress on at least one or two of the MITs. During 4 hours, I'm highly likely to choose more than 4 aces. I'll get at least one queen or jack or joker.
Because I didn't get any jokers last round, I've added a joker for the simple reason that I'm envious that you got 4 jokers and I got none! "T'aint fair!" LOL! Well I only have 18" more minutes until the next block. (I give myself an hour to do the little stuff and recurring stuff plus some pure goof off time before I start the next time block.) Fingers crossed that I get a joker in the mix!
January 7, 2014 at 18:44 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Mark, thanks for a fun idea or two to start 2014. An amusing variation is to put your favourite music playlist on "shuffle" and be alert to synchronicities.

"Random" may of course just be a label for unknown causes, like luck maybe.
January 7, 2014 at 20:50 | Unregistered Commentermichael
Hi Mark
WooHoo! I got a joker! Load of laundry going in while I do bills. That is so relieving to to this instead of the other stuff for awhile. I love the jokers. There's one more in there. Fingers crossed.
January 7, 2014 at 21:24 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Learning:

<< Does the randomizer keep the tasks circulating rather than eliminating them as you work on them? >>

It's easy to arrange it either way.
January 8, 2014 at 17:56 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
michael:

<<"Random" may of course just be a label for unknown causes, like luck maybe. >>

Many so-called randomizers use formulas which simulate randomness, but actually aren't. However random.org uses atmospheric noise - don't ask me how - which gives much truer randomization apparently.

My favourite demonstration of a randomizer is to show how traffic authorities can sincerely report huge improvements in accident rates from the use of speed cameras without actually making any difference at all to the accident rates.
January 8, 2014 at 18:01 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Mark wrote:
<< My favourite demonstration of a randomizer is to show how traffic authorities can sincerely report huge improvements in accident rates from the use of speed cameras without actually making any difference at all to the accident rates. >>

Are you referring to the "regression to the mean" phenomenon described here?
http://understandinguncertainty.org/speed-cameras-regression-mean-and-daily-mail-again

Or something else?

A good friend of mine has been battling speed cameras, red-light cameras, and yellow-light timing shenanigans all over the western United States - they generally DECREASE safety but are still popular with lawmakers because they generate lots of revenue for states and municipalities.
January 8, 2014 at 22:59 | Registered CommenterSeraphim
Mark wrote:
<< Among the testimonials on the random number site is one from a guy who uses it to predict the future - a future which he then makes happen. I'm not sure how seriously he meant it, but it does have possibilities. >>

This reminds me of one of Peter F. Drucker's quotes: "The best way to predict the future is to create it." Lots of variants here: http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/09/27/invent-the-future/
January 8, 2014 at 23:06 | Registered CommenterSeraphim
Seraphim:

<< Are you referring to the "regression to the mean" phenomenon described here?
http://understandinguncertainty.org/speed-cameras-regression-mean-and-daily-mail-again >>

Yes! It can be demonstrated very clearly with a randomizer. I might demonstrate it in a later post.

<< A good friend of mine has been battling speed cameras, red-light cameras, and yellow-light timing shenanigans all over the western United States - they generally DECREASE safety but are still popular with lawmakers because they generate lots of revenue for states and municipalities. >>

This country is infested with them - that and stupid "traffic-calming measures" *. But they are not quite so popular with the authorities now because the government has cut the link by which the money raised went to the same authority which set up the cameras.

* The safest roads are also the fastest, i.e. motorways. Furthermore the majority of accidents on motorways occur where there are roadworks and the flow of traffic is deviated or interrupted. So the solution for reducing accidents in urban areas? Obviously to break up the flow of traffic by putting in artifical deviations and interruptions.
January 9, 2014 at 12:44 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
I am now going to demonstrate how speed cameras are incredibly efficient at reducing accidents.

Let's take six potential camera sites and examine their accident records. To establish the accident records for the sites, I will use the random "dice roller" function on random.org. I will give each site six throws of the dice and every time a six comes up I will record an accident. Here goes:

Site A: 2 accidents
Site B: 0
Site C: 1
Site D: 1
Site E: 2
Site F: 3

Obviously site F is highly dangerous, so we will install a speed camera.

Let's roll the dice again:

Site A: 2
Site B: 0
Site C: 1
Site D: 0
Site E: 2
Site F: 0

Wow! Putting the speed camera on Site F has reduced the accident rate to 0!!! That's one in the eye for all the doubters.

So obviously the next step is to tackle Sites A and E which have an accident rate of 2 accidents a year each.

Roll the dice again:


Site A: 2
Site B: 1
Site C: 1
Site D: 2
Site E: 1
Site F: 1

Hmm... The new speed camera hasn't changed the accident rate on Site A, but the one on site E has reduced it by 50%, and the camera on Site F is still having a huge effect. So you can see clearly from these statistics that speed cameras overall are having great success. Obviously the next step is to reduce the speed limit on Site A and put another camera on Site D, which has become more dangerous - probably because drivers are now taking the opportunity of a camera-free zone to speed up.

COMMENT:

All this discussion is just fantasy in the minds of the highway authority. What is really happening is that the accidents are completely random, and there has been no difference whatever to the likelihood of accidents at any of the sites. If you take the total number of accidents Year 1 was 9, Year 2 was 5 and Year 3 was 8. Note that the big dip in Year 2 was also a random event.

NOTE: I didn't cheat at all. Try this for yourself if you don't believe me.
January 9, 2014 at 13:13 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
And note that this works in reverse too. If you take cameras away from sites which have a low accident record, some of them are bound to have an increased accident rate the next year. Naturally the people responsible for removing those cameras are murderers in all but name.
January 9, 2014 at 13:38 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
I renamed "Site A" to "Flibblesville" and accidents dropped to zero. Clearly the new name encourages better driving!
January 9, 2014 at 13:42 | Unregistered CommenterChris
Sounds like Demings work on Quality. I believe it works like this (I'm not an expert, just fascinated by it) What you look for in a set of data is variability. If the variability is within a certain range, it's random, I believe Deming called this common cause variability. So if you look at 5 intersections and they all have between, say 15 and 20 accidents per year, that's common cause variability. Of course, the strategy is to reduce the number of accidents at all 5 intersections, but putting a camera on the intersection with 20 accidents won't address the "core" problem. However, if a 6th intersection has 60 accidents, then this is called a special cause varation because the data is so far outside the regular stream. You would need to look at this intersection more carefully to find out why there are so many accidents at this particular intersection.

There are two circumstances where traffic cameras might work. First, to reduce the average number of accidents per intercection from, say, 15 to 5, you could try installing traffic cameras at each intersection and track the data. This may be a way of addressing the common cause variability. Or, if one intersection did have 60 accidents, you might install a traffic camera at that intersection to see if you could get the data under control, or perhaps there is another reason for the anomaly.

This is important for management because so often we confuse special cause variability with common cause variability. We make changes to an individual intersection when what needs to be addressed is the whole system, or, we initiate a systematic change across the whole system when the problem is just one intersection. That's why I believe data is so important.
January 9, 2014 at 14:22 | Unregistered CommenterPaul MacNeil
Chris:

Next year you'll probably find they've got used to the new name and the accident rate has risen again.
January 9, 2014 at 14:24 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Paul MacNeil:

<< This is important for management because so often we confuse special cause variability with common cause variability. >>

Yes, variability is a characteristic of random numbers. They "clump" as opposed to being evenly spread, which is what people intuitively assume.

This has implications in many fields, including for example epidemiology. Incidents of fairly rare diseases can clump, giving the impression that there is some local environmental factor that is producing the result when it's just natural randomness. Of course, to complicate things there may actually be a local environmental factor that is producing the result. This gives rise to two questions: 1) How do you tell the difference? 2) How do you explain the result in language which will satisfy the local population, press, politians and class-action lawyers?
January 9, 2014 at 14:33 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Hi all
I can't be the only one who drives more carefully where I know there are cameras. *guilty!* A few acquaintances have complained to me about tickets they've received for speeding, running red light and one made an illegal U turn. They got no sympathy from me. All of these cameras are in or very close to our neighborhood. LOL! What did they think would happen? In my state, you have to pay a surcharge for three years on top of a one time penalty when you accrue enough traffic violation points. I'm never in that much of a hurry! If others are like me, the cameras play well to our frugality. Some people here are on 6 months suspended license for....accumulated traffic violations points! I thought only drunk drivers got their license suspended.

It used to be seeing a cop car on the highway or following somebody who had the guts to own a speed trap dectector even though it's illegal in some states. The highway traffic would reduce from 75 - 80 miles per hour down to posted limit of 55 mph! LOL! I think those cameras have the same effect. Who wants to pay a surcharge for three years because they kept ignoring the cameras?
January 9, 2014 at 17:44 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Hi Mark: How do you tell the difference between special cause and common cause variability? Believe it or not, there's a mathematical formula for that, it has to do with the distribution of data over time. If you can imagine a graph of data points along an axis over time, say 12 months. Within that date you can draw a straight line which represents the mean value, kind of a mid-point through all the data. That mean value is the result of a formula based on the data. Two other calculations are possible: an upper control limit and a matching lower control limit. This calculation will give you two lines above and below the mean value. (FYI, the formula is simple: usually standard deviation +/- 3) Any data point above or below those two lines represents a possible special cause and should be examined individually for the causes. There may not be any special cause, but nevertheless it would be wise to examine it and figure out the cause. In the cases of the other data points, time would be better spent looking at the system as a whole and make improvements on the system. Improvements on the system are designed to minimize the distance between the upper and lower control limits ("getting the system under control") and then lowering the mean value ("improving quality"). I believe this is the essence of 6 sigma.

The graph I asked you to imagine is called a control chart, and an example of one is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Xbar_chart_for_a_paired_xbar_and_R_chart.svg

Here is an article about how to create a control chart. Try it!

http://www.wikihow.com/Create-a-Control-Chart

Others can explain this better, this is totally not my field. Please forgive me if I've gotten it wrong.
January 9, 2014 at 20:10 | Unregistered CommenterPaul MacNeil
I've tried this a few times with the original AutoFocus (AF1). It's a great way to break down resistance and get moving on different projects, especially when you are in a rut and no activities look appealing. I haven't been able to sustain it for more than about a week though. First, once you get moving on a few random tasks, after several days you "know what you want to do" (ie keep working on some of the random items). Also, I find that in a lot of cases, for every AutoFocus task I complete, another two are created. As you keep working on things the list just fans out and gets larger and larger. If you have 100 items on your list and are processing 10 randomly every day, a feeling of frustration can set in when you realize a preferred activity will only come up once every 10 days on average, and you have no way of "getting to" that item because the random number generator is "in charge" (ha ha).

Actually, the realization that the AutoFocus list was always going to fan out and get larger and larger made me take an approach of every week condensing the list down to about a page, resulting in an iterative process of working and consolidating, working and consolidating etc. Condense the list on Saturday to a page of around 30 items. Work the list as normal from Sunday to Friday. The following Saturday the list will be about 4-5 pages, so condense it back to 1 page, then repeat the process. Use random numbers if necessary to start on something.
January 9, 2014 at 22:21 | Unregistered CommenterSimon
Simon:

I've found the random selection is amazingly effective in overcoming resistance and getting jobs done which I know I wouldn't have done otherwise.

My best solution so far to the problem of the ever-growing list is to start the day with a list of two tasks and every time I finish working on one task I add another. I remove tasks which are completely finished from the list, but keep unfinished and recurrent tasks on it. The random number generator is set to the number of tasks currently on the list.

A variation on this which I haven't tried yet is to write out a list for the day in order of importance, set the generator to choose a number between 1 and 2, and then increase the second number by one each time..
January 10, 2014 at 1:56 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Maybe to simplify a little, you could roll a single six-sided die and move that many tasks forward in your list. It would be simpler than resetting the generator all the time, and you wouldn't need a website at all, just a die.

Do you think that would work?

To move faster thru the list, you could use an icosahedron (d20), or percentile dice if you have a really long list.
January 10, 2014 at 2:14 | Registered CommenterSeraphim
Hi Seraphim
What's wrong with rolling the die or dice is that each roll is a virgin roll. Was was a craps croupier in my past. Example: You could roll 10 12's in a row. Contrasting a deck of cards, in which you can track them and adjust the odds. That's why they have 6 decks in a shoe and shuffle them after dealing only a few decks. When I'm forcing myself to get stuff done, I want to make sure that I can stack the deck to my favor yet still have some randomness. People don't realize that the dice odds are based on each roll or an infinite amount of rolls. IOW, each roll of the dice is a virgin roll. Mark got 4 jokers in only 1/2 a day. With my dimishing pile of cards, there was no way I'd get so many jokers because I only had 1 or 2 jokers. Or you could break down the work into smaller units but that would require more times of having to draw cards/numbers. My way, I choose a job and work on subtasks until I choose another card (which could be a repeat. LOL!) My aim is to use the game to get me more willing to start and to spend as little time as possible getting the work done. That's why I prime the deck.
January 10, 2014 at 2:57 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Seraphim

<< you could roll a single six-sided die and move that many tasks forward in your list. It would be simpler than resetting the generator all the time, and you wouldn't need a website at all, just a die. >>

I've tried that, but the problem is that moving fast through the list isn't really an advantage in itself. As learning says, the dice take no notice of what you want or what has gone before or what is coming after. So all you get is a random selection from a list of 60 tasks (or whatever number you have), which is exactly what you get if you set the randomizer to select from 60 numbers. What is needed is a way of increasing the odds of selecting certain tasks. I'm doing it by putting the important tasks at the beginning, so the odds start at 50%.

And btw you won't move very fast through the list if you do what you're suggesting. With one die you would move at an average of three tasks per throw.
January 10, 2014 at 10:35 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
I've spoken before about the similarities between using systems for productivity and using diets for weight loss. In both cases there is a feeling of overwhelm and increasing loss of control of tasks / weight. We know we need to work more efficiently / eat better. Despite knowing this we still continue procrastinating / eating poorly because there is an immediate neurological payoff.

Diets can be effective because you outsource your food habits to the rules of the chosen diet programme. Similarly productivity systems can be effective because you outsource your task processessing to a chosen rules based system. By outsourcing the decision process you are freed from the guilt of continuing with poor choices and the productivity / diet system takes over a large part of the decision process.

In both cases the systems can work for a while then start to fail. This is because we learn to game them and push against the system's inherent weaknesses. For diets, surely one cake is okay, and for productivity I'll do that awkward task after I've just spent another hour watching television. These individual pushes are okay by themselves but they represent a change in attitude to the system which can ring alarm bells as it suggests the poor decision making processes are slowly being taken back from the system in order to once again experience the immediate gratification feeling.

The most common result is "falling off the wagon" (Dave Allen cheerfully uses this exact phrase, somewhat cunningly encouraging people back to GTD) followed by a new diet / productivity system - this is a new approach, it is definitely The One! I've lost count of how many times I've done this.

It's interestng to read Seraphim's experience under stress - he started looking for a fresh system which would address the creep. But he caught himself doing it and said "NO!" and drew closer to his system, which takes some willpower, like sticking to a diet that already works rather than looking for a new one. The stress was the trigger which caused a flight response, looking for safety in a new hiding place.

The use of random selections is interesting because it's the ultimate sacrifice of decision making, and it works if you have the willpower to stick to what the selector says. If you find yourself picking another card or rolling the dice again to try and get another task then your gratification habits are making themselves known again - time to really knuckle down and focus on the good results from the system as the payoff instead. That takes real willpower and a longer term vision as to what you want.

I've been through my story before. I've tried lots of productivity systems (and lots of diets!) over the last 25 years until, like Serpahim, I said to myself "This is just going over old ground, I'm not doing this any more". At that point I abandoned all diet and productivity rules based systems and changed to a combination of getting my head down and getting on with doing things and eating correctly, and using a simple text list to keep track of a few things. The relief at the time, from dropping what felt like baggage, was amazing and since then this way of living has just become normal.

I think it's fascinating just how powerful the immediate gratification can be and how we can construct supporting environments to help control them. When done right they are incredibly helpful and lots of experimentation and experience helps to tailor the most useful concepts which stay with you forever.
January 10, 2014 at 14:42 | Unregistered CommenterChris
Hi Chris
Congrats on your mastery! However, it's not so easy for many people. You said

"The relief at the time, from dropping what felt like baggage, was amazing and since then this way of living has just become normal."

Even before the brain damage, my brain was never like that. Unless you have the same type of hard-wiring, you can't begin to realize what it actually feels like. I have managed to enjoy some accomplishments despite having this life long battle. Trust me. Continuously forcing myself to do what I want to get done yet hating the process has always been the most challenging part of the battle. I'm not the only one. People only see what you've accomplished. They aren't aware of the daily grind of forcing yourself to do what your brain is begging you to avoid.

After the cognitive reconstruction therapy, my brain's capacities improved somewhat but the damage made the challenge of fighting my brain's tendencies much harder to do. I came to Mark's site in desperation because I couldn't think or do as I used to. I learned principles and work arounds that have helped tremendously. I only wish I had learned them 50-60 years ago, especially little and often and not needing to work my list in order.

It's not so much "instant gratification" as it is profound relief. It's incredibly difficult to fight against seeking relief when your brain's response is making you feel agonizingly restless. These work arounds may seem silly to you but them are a lifesaver to me. They help me to follow my conscientious with far less of a cognitive battle to keep approaching what my brain is registering as "avoid! avoid! pain and anxiety ahead!" LOL! I'd still do my work even if I didn't learn these tricks. However, these workarounds greatly reduce the stress and mental fatigue. It may seem silly to you but it's a lifesaver to me. And I'm not alone. Trust me. It's a life long battle. I actually have to stoke up my brain like I'm going into battle. My weapon is the ways I've learned to circumvent the problem. My only shield is my determination. The cognitive dissonance is hard wiring, not just a wimpy attitude. It never gets easier. We just carry on.


That's just the flip side of my wiring. It's the price I pay for also having the benefits of this quirky hunk of gray matter. When I'm challenged or interested, I can work non-stop for obscene lengths of time (if the disabilities don't interfere.) Hey, I can't take any credit at all. It's just how my brain sputters along. LOL!

If you could appreciate the incredible amounts of willpower needed to do dreaded work, then you could see how heroic Seraphim actually is. We sometimes feel desperate to find a way to make approaching dreaded work easier. Seraphim saw his as merely mental habits. I sincerely pray that's all it is for him. When it's genetic, there is no cure or adjustments. There's only determination and that doesn't quell the torture. We just get used to living the grind knowing that there's no alternatives other than delegation. LOL!

When my resistance stalemates me, I just grab the cards. It's silly to you. It's a Godsend to me.
January 10, 2014 at 16:44 | Unregistered Commenterlearning as I go
Mark, I like the idea of starting with a very small list of only a few items. I think my problem might've been applying the random number generator to a full AutoFocus notebook of 10+ pages and 100+ items. It actually had a lot of benefits for the first few days -- items on the earlier pages were as likely to come up as current items, and it felt as though nothing would ever get lost in the system because eventually everything would be addressed.

(FYI the strategy to pick random items from a paper AF list was to generate two random numbers -- one for the page # and the other for the line # on the page. If it came back to page 4 and line 17, but that item was already crossed off, I would just do the first open item below it.)

Anyway, I think deep down we know what we need to do. After 3 or 4 days of running random AF, I felt a really strong tension building up because I wasn't getting to the things I knew I really had to do. After about 5 or 6 days the tension was quite strong, so I abandoned "randomAF" and just started doing what needed to be done. But ... I was happy that randomAF not only helped me clarify what needed to be done, but it also built up tension that worked as a great motivator, and I got started on quite a few interesting projects that I wouldn't have done otherwise.

So there might be a back and forth here -- work the lists and do what needs to be done. When you hit the point where you are cycling through the lists and nothing is standing out, rather than dismissing, just switch over to randomAF for a little while.
January 10, 2014 at 17:22 | Unregistered CommenterSimon
LifeBalance has an interesting use of the randomizer. Here's the program in a nutshell:
1. Enter all your tasks, and organize them however you like in a tree.
2. Define for each task it's life area (family, recreation, work, service, whatever), and optionally importance, and timeframe, duration, sequence, etc..
3. The program randomly chooses a short list of things you might work on, while respecting what you have defined about each task.
4. If you neglect an area of your life, those tasks are more likely to come up. If you neglect certain tasks for a while, those become more likely to appear on the list.
5. Do things on the list, check them off, and new things get randomly thrown in the pot.

It is a bit unnerving for a while, as you think whether something should be done that's not on the list, but eventually you learn to trust it and adapt. If something should have be done sooner you can adjust the properties when you define and organize the tasks in the tree.
January 10, 2014 at 17:40 | Registered CommenterAlan Baljeu
Chris wrote:
<< But he caught himself doing it and said "NO!" and drew closer to his system, which takes some willpower, like sticking to a diet that already works rather than looking for a new one. >>

Yes, it took a little willpower, but mostly it took a recognition of what was happening, and the realization I had missed a trigger. This is very helpful as I try to figure out what triggers and rewards are at the root of these undesirable behaviors.

I have been drafting another post on this topic, to show how important Charles Duhigg's book, The Power of Habit, has been to me lately: his discussion on the way habits form, how they function, and how they can be reprogrammed. A short version is posted here:

http://markforster.squarespace.com/forum/post/2252333#post2258150

Learning, if you have not yet seen this book, or tried the techniques in it, I think it might be helpful for you. The center of habit formation is the basal ganglia, which is pretty deep inside the brain and is usually not impacted by physical brain damage, so perhaps the techniques in this book can help you.

These ideas mesh very well with Mark's emphasis on structure and systems, such as what he described in the Do It Tomorrow book and in many places on this site.
January 10, 2014 at 19:17 | Registered CommenterSeraphim
Alan, LifeBalance sounds interesting. It reminds me a little of an app I've been using called Lift, which simply tracks repeated habitual behavior. I wonder if I can work some of these concepts into my personal kanban.
January 10, 2014 at 19:19 | Registered CommenterSeraphim
Mark wrote:
<< What is needed is a way of increasing the odds of selecting certain tasks. >>

If you are using an AF1-like list, where items are added at the end, and re-entered at the end if not completed, then I'd guess the "freshest" and "most important" items are near the end (de facto, based on the fact that actioned tasks will tend to conglomerate there).

Coming from a person who, at age 9, memorized the Monopoly game board and the relative probabilities of landing on the various squares, and used this information to great advantage against his friends and siblings, there are lots of ways to set up dice rules to help emphasize different parts of the board. :-)

For example, you might want to spend less time on early pages and more time on later pages. Let's say you have four pages in your AF1 book. OK, get our four six-sided dice. Depending on what page you are on, roll this many dice to see how many tasks to move forward:
Page - Dice
1 ----- 4
2 ----- 3
3 ----- 2
4 ----- 1

If the chosen task is still valid, take action for as long as you want, and re-enter at the end of the list if you don't finish it in one go.

If the chosen task is no longer of interest, simply delete it and roll the dice again.

This way, you don't need to arbitrarily assess which tasks are "important" - you can let the system decide that, based on which tasks actually see action.
January 10, 2014 at 19:33 | Registered CommenterSeraphim
Simon:

<< FYI the strategy to pick random items from a paper AF list was to generate two random numbers -- one for the page # and the other for the line # on the page. If it came back to page 4 and line 17, but that item was already crossed off, I would just do the first open item below it. >>

I'm not sure if you are aware of it, but this method is not fully random. It gives preference to tasks which are on the pages on which the most tasks have already been done. The chances of landing on any particular page are equal, but once you are on the page the odds will vary according to the number and position of the remaining tasks.

For example if you have a page of 20 lines and it is full with 20 tasks, then once you have landed on the page there is only one number which will select any particular task. The task on line 8 can only be selected if you throw an 8. So its chances of being selected are 1 in 20 or 5%.

However if the tasks on Lines 1-7 have all already been crossed out, then any number between 1 and 8 inclusive will select the task on Line 8. Its chances of being selected are therefore 8 in 20 or 40%.

I'm not sure what you intend to happen when you throw a number which refers to a line below the last open task on the page. Do you carry on to the following page and do the first open task there? If that is the case then the odds in my example would be even higher.

So you can see that there is a huge difference in the odds of individual tasks being selected and this tends to favour the older tasks on the list.

This may well be a good thing.
January 10, 2014 at 20:33 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Alan:

<< The program randomly chooses a short list of things you might work on, while respecting what you have defined about each task. >>

I'm not sure I understand how it does that. Does it select a few tasks from each life area?
January 10, 2014 at 20:36 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Seraphim:

Simon's method puts the emphasis on the earliest pages and now your method puts the emphasis on the latest pages. I assume that if a throw on the last page takes you beyond the end of the page you go back to Page 1 and finish the count. Otherwise I don't see how Task 1 would ever get done.

<< This way, you don't need to arbitrarily assess which tasks are "important" - you can let the system decide that, based on which tasks actually see action. >>

I don't understand how that works. The system would certainly favour completing tasks once they've been started, but I don't see why those would necessarily be more important than the ones which haven't been started.
January 10, 2014 at 20:45 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Another method is to have several lists with different numbers of tasks on them. For example you could use the "A - Must Do", "B - Should Do" and "C - Could Do" grading system to produce three lists. Work on List A using the randomizer until it is complete, then List B and then List C.

Or perhaps you could take one task from each list in turn. This would work because there should be less tasks in List A than in List B, and less tasks in List B than in List C. Therefore the odds on List A tasks are higher than those on List B tasks and those in List B higher than those in List C.
January 10, 2014 at 20:54 | Registered CommenterMark Forster
Mark, actually for a while I actually numbered all of the unactioned items in the AF notebook, and then randomized those numbers in Excel. If there were 80 unactioned items in the notebook, cells A1:A80 in Excel would be populated with integers 1 through 80. Cells B1:B80 would be random numbers. I would select columns A and B and sort by column B, which would randomize the numbers in column A. Each time a task was completed I would delete the number in Excel and cross it off the list in the notebook. It sounds tedious, but actually it wasn't, and I only used this method here and there to get out of ruts.

You can also try this if you want a higher probability of picking some tasks. Let's say you have four tasks -- A, B, C and D, and you assign them a score between 1 and 5 based on importance, with 5 being the highest. For example:

A - 3
B - 2
C - 5
D - 4

Those numbers add to 14. Use the numbers to create ranges:

A - 1 to 3 (3 numbers)
B - 4 to 5 (2 numbers)
C - 6 to 10 (5 numbers)
D - 11 to 14 (4 numbers)

Then pick a random integer between 1 and 14, and then choose the corresponding activity.

The other simpler approach to randomizing tasks would be to just write the activities on blank business cards and then shuffle them. The cards can also be physically sorted, project steps can be listed on the back etc. But not terribly portable.
January 10, 2014 at 22:03 | Unregistered CommenterSimon
<< The program randomly chooses a short list of things you might work on, while respecting what you have defined about each task. >>

<I'm not sure I understand how it does that. Does it select a few tasks from each life area?>

I'm not entirely sure Mark. It does pick tasks from each area for sure, but it will emphasize areas you neglected and tasks you neglected. There's also a button to pick a different set if you don't like the current list.
January 10, 2014 at 22:21 | Registered CommenterAlan Baljeu

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